1/22/09
SPX at 60 min upper channel again
STO and MACD look promising for continuation but 830 is a res level
The New guy in charge of the Treasury knowingly cheated on his taxes
IS NOW IN CHARGE OF THE IRS... Great call Obama...yes we can't
Geithner approved by Senate panel for Treasury Secretary
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Senate Finance Committee voted Thursday to approve the nomination of Timothy Geithner to be Treasury Secretary. The vote was 18 to 5. Several Republicans said they could not vote for him because of errors on his tax returns uncovered by the committee. Sen Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., said he did not believe Geithner was candid with the panel. But Democrats unanimously backed Geithner. Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., said Geithner would be an able navigator through "troubled, dangerous and uncharted waters." The nomination now goes to the full Senate floor, and is expected to be cleared easily.
Geithner approved by Senate panel for Treasury Secretary
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Senate Finance Committee voted Thursday to approve the nomination of Timothy Geithner to be Treasury Secretary. The vote was 18 to 5. Several Republicans said they could not vote for him because of errors on his tax returns uncovered by the committee. Sen Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., said he did not believe Geithner was candid with the panel. But Democrats unanimously backed Geithner. Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., said Geithner would be an able navigator through "troubled, dangerous and uncharted waters." The nomination now goes to the full Senate floor, and is expected to be cleared easily.
SPX 812
Getting to a critical area IMO, 804 needs to hold for the bulls.
Sharp trade down to bottom of the channel is definitely a possibility
RIMM set up
For sure a great run in this market. However now watching for a short set up mainly using the RSI...not there yet
Market Teaches Lesson #2.. http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
Yesterday saw the "greed" side of the "fear and greed" equation on Wall Street.
What set off a 14.7% rally in the XLF - the very same financial sector that got destroyed the previous day?
The following:
President Obama said in a loud, clear voice that the policy of obfuscation was over - that FOIAs and similar requests were going to be handled with a bias toward approval, not "hiding things."
Insiders at JP Morgan and Bank America bought shares
There was a statement out of Europe hinting that there may be intervention in the Pound if it continued to get destroyed.
All three combined to produce a powerful rally as people ran for the exits of what had been very profitable trades. Greed? Or fear of being trapped by yet another rule change?
Does it matter? To use one word: YES.
The market doesn't move in this sort of fashion if it is healthy. The distrust in our financial markets is the stuff that books will be written about down the road - assuming our Republic survives.
But in the meantime, the market sent a powerful signal that while fear and greed continue to be the driving forces, neither holds the upper hand today, and yet confidence - the key element in all financial markets - remains absent.
How do we restore confidence?
President Obama took an important baby step with his speech Wednesday, promising more transparency.
What set off a 14.7% rally in the XLF - the very same financial sector that got destroyed the previous day?
The following:
President Obama said in a loud, clear voice that the policy of obfuscation was over - that FOIAs and similar requests were going to be handled with a bias toward approval, not "hiding things."
Insiders at JP Morgan and Bank America bought shares
There was a statement out of Europe hinting that there may be intervention in the Pound if it continued to get destroyed.
All three combined to produce a powerful rally as people ran for the exits of what had been very profitable trades. Greed? Or fear of being trapped by yet another rule change?
Does it matter? To use one word: YES.
The market doesn't move in this sort of fashion if it is healthy. The distrust in our financial markets is the stuff that books will be written about down the road - assuming our Republic survives.
But in the meantime, the market sent a powerful signal that while fear and greed continue to be the driving forces, neither holds the upper hand today, and yet confidence - the key element in all financial markets - remains absent.
How do we restore confidence?
President Obama took an important baby step with his speech Wednesday, promising more transparency.
Another Freaking Gap open Down 2%
Gap and trades down to trend line but not violated MACD cross, not yet...could be buy the dip (I don't know why... :) )
1/21/09
SPX hits top of channel
Reminds me of when CFC FNM SLM FRE WA were jerking around up 50% down 50%....thanks to the Trsy and FED
XLF +11% but FAS the 3X only up 20% XLE +5.2% on +8% oil
815 SPX is trying to hold - turned back at 824
DOW 8000 as well. XLF off high now +5% XLE XLK up over 2%
News
US Stocks Open Higher On IBM Outlook
U.S. stocks show sharp early gains with International Business Machines' positive 2009 guidance offering encouragement to the broader market after Tuesday's banking sector plunge led to a 332-point drop in the Dow. The DJIA is up more than 120 points.
US Stock Futures Higher On IBM Outlook
U.S. stock futures pointed to a higher start on Wednesday, with International Business Machines' guidance offering respite after the last session's banking sector plunge.
IBM's guidance "is giving the stock a lift and is slightly encouraging to the broader market, although there are a lot more earnings yet to be reported," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald.
S&P 500 futures rose 8.6 points to 814.6 and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 5 points to 1152.75. Dow industrial futures rose 75 points to 8019.
U.S. stocks dropped sharply Tuesday, with the financial sector skidding as investors panicked at the likelihood that banks needed more capital without an easy way to get it. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, in its worst-ever performance on Inauguration Day, skidded 332 points, the S&P 500 lost 38 points and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 88 points.
IBM rose 5% in pre-open trading as the technology bellwether forecast 2009 earnings of at least $9.20 a share, compared with analyst expectations around $8.70 a share. IBM's fourth-quarter profit rose 12%.
"While the shares may remain range-bound for several quarters pending a resumption of revenue and profit growth in the second half, current valuation looks attractive at 9 times our revised 2009 EPS estimate," said analysts from Citigroup.
Telecom-equipment maker Ericsson climbed nearly 14% after announcing a 31% profit drop and 5,000 jobs cuts.
Also on the earnings front, fund manager BlackRock fell 5.5% after reporting a 84% profit drop, while Dow industrials component United Technologies said fourth-quarter profit rose 8%. After the close, Apple and eBay will unveil results.
While earnings will attract attention, the financial sector will be back in the spotlight after the 17% dive in the sector on Tuesday.
Insurer Hartford rose 5.3% in pre-market trade and Citigroup added more than 11%. Three-month dollar Libor (London Interbank Offered Rate) edged up to 1.125% from 1.225%.
The confirmation hearing for Timothy Geithner also will be a spotlight. His top job will be to explain to Senators why the previous $700 billion fix of the financial sector didn't work and more funds are required to clean up the mess. Geithner also didn't pay all of his self-employment and Medicare taxes during the years that he worked at the International Monetary Fund.
Elsewhere, gold futures fell and oil futures rose in electronic trading. "Longer term, a combination of devalued currencies, growing global incomes and a renewed appreciation for gold should keep prices higher. Essentially, a long gold view now is a view that inflation will be higher than what central banks are suggesting they are willing to accept," said analysts from Morgan Stanley.
The British pound was battered again, and most overseas markets dropped as financials skidded overseas as well. The Nikkei 225 dropped 2% in Tokyo and the FTSE 100, in afternoon trade, dropped 0.8% in London.
U.S. stocks show sharp early gains with International Business Machines' positive 2009 guidance offering encouragement to the broader market after Tuesday's banking sector plunge led to a 332-point drop in the Dow. The DJIA is up more than 120 points.
US Stock Futures Higher On IBM Outlook
U.S. stock futures pointed to a higher start on Wednesday, with International Business Machines' guidance offering respite after the last session's banking sector plunge.
IBM's guidance "is giving the stock a lift and is slightly encouraging to the broader market, although there are a lot more earnings yet to be reported," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald.
S&P 500 futures rose 8.6 points to 814.6 and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 5 points to 1152.75. Dow industrial futures rose 75 points to 8019.
U.S. stocks dropped sharply Tuesday, with the financial sector skidding as investors panicked at the likelihood that banks needed more capital without an easy way to get it. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, in its worst-ever performance on Inauguration Day, skidded 332 points, the S&P 500 lost 38 points and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 88 points.
IBM rose 5% in pre-open trading as the technology bellwether forecast 2009 earnings of at least $9.20 a share, compared with analyst expectations around $8.70 a share. IBM's fourth-quarter profit rose 12%.
"While the shares may remain range-bound for several quarters pending a resumption of revenue and profit growth in the second half, current valuation looks attractive at 9 times our revised 2009 EPS estimate," said analysts from Citigroup.
Telecom-equipment maker Ericsson climbed nearly 14% after announcing a 31% profit drop and 5,000 jobs cuts.
Also on the earnings front, fund manager BlackRock fell 5.5% after reporting a 84% profit drop, while Dow industrials component United Technologies said fourth-quarter profit rose 8%. After the close, Apple and eBay will unveil results.
While earnings will attract attention, the financial sector will be back in the spotlight after the 17% dive in the sector on Tuesday.
Insurer Hartford rose 5.3% in pre-market trade and Citigroup added more than 11%. Three-month dollar Libor (London Interbank Offered Rate) edged up to 1.125% from 1.225%.
The confirmation hearing for Timothy Geithner also will be a spotlight. His top job will be to explain to Senators why the previous $700 billion fix of the financial sector didn't work and more funds are required to clean up the mess. Geithner also didn't pay all of his self-employment and Medicare taxes during the years that he worked at the International Monetary Fund.
Elsewhere, gold futures fell and oil futures rose in electronic trading. "Longer term, a combination of devalued currencies, growing global incomes and a renewed appreciation for gold should keep prices higher. Essentially, a long gold view now is a view that inflation will be higher than what central banks are suggesting they are willing to accept," said analysts from Morgan Stanley.
The British pound was battered again, and most overseas markets dropped as financials skidded overseas as well. The Nikkei 225 dropped 2% in Tokyo and the FTSE 100, in afternoon trade, dropped 0.8% in London.
XLF up 4% Pre market... SPX Up 1.6%
This makes me think the SPX 60 min RSI non confirmation (prior post) may play today.
Resistance at 830 then 858 today
Resistance at 830 then 858 today
1/20/09
$QRGI - the Bailout Index
in 20 days... from 1000 to 584... and us, the taxpayer are supposed to get our money back... what century?
I'd post the chart but stockcharts has not put it up yet
I'd post the chart but stockcharts has not put it up yet
Will the Feds Buy the market today or Wednesday
You know they don't want a Market disaster on Obama's 1st day...oh, I forgot Paulson is gone...and the New Tresy guy is trying to pay back taxes..
Financials ass raped Dow -270 XLF -14%
Vix ready to bust, 817 doesn't hold on the SPX....one hour to go...good news is we are near oversold on the technicals (although the daily charts are not OS)
VIX watch
54 would be a trend line break and mini crash possible...need to watch this as mentioned last week
52.50 now
XLF daily and weekly...perspective
you have to watch for a low, I don't care how many years it takes
Is it me but is Obama's speech boring?
SPX 821 bounce here ready? Banks suck...looks like JPM is losing their buds in Bush and the selling begins down to $19 today...Look for a possible double bottom in the XLF 8.80 ish... ?...maybe just a temp support level
Have to take a very old very sick dog to the Vet
Back around noon. Watch SPX 817. The financials are getting sacked hard STT ect
1/19/09
UK Bank action Monday
As mentioned last week, I am seeing broader market indexes diverge from horrific financial stocks and banking ETF performance.
Monday the UK dilutive bailout of RBS killed that stock but the FTSE fell less than 1%
Traders are all out of financial exposure or the spring is coiled for the broader indexes to follow.
Right now in the UK and Friday in the US the general markets are moving counter to financials
Watching XLF and VIX.
Monday the UK dilutive bailout of RBS killed that stock but the FTSE fell less than 1%
Traders are all out of financial exposure or the spring is coiled for the broader indexes to follow.
Right now in the UK and Friday in the US the general markets are moving counter to financials
Watching XLF and VIX.
1/16/09
Ranges for the close
XLF is really the only sector besides oil that is down....No legs shon so far today and a long weekend for the market
Market Digesting a lot of bad news But up 86 here on the DOW
May take a few hours to work off Thursdays close and todays open if it wants to go higher today...Options Exp tend to neutralize the movement
XLF Day chart
Posted before...Update
Watching this RSI turn at the right place...also for a new low breakdown in case
XLF should Change Composite
to banks without Bailout monies (TARP) excluded
S&P and DOW should drop them as well...GM ect
Otherwise downside pressure on the indexes will remain for months if not years
S&P and DOW should drop them as well...GM ect
Otherwise downside pressure on the indexes will remain for months if not years
SPX breaks 60 min channel 851 now support on pullback
lots of room for the shortterm tech to run
DOW +114
SPX Res 877 - 862
Support levels on trend line ~ 835 then that 817 level
Today is Options Exp...be safe!
1/15/09
I guess I shouldn't be surprised
Bears Next Target: Bubble in Treasury Bonds
There's a bubble in US Treasury bonds. Here's the explanation:
1. The bailout money is not being lent to consumers, but rather is being used by banks to buy Treasury bonds.
2. We've been seeing Treasury bond prices rise strongly (i.e. falling yield rates), which reflects increased demand for Treasuries. At the same time, though, the fundamentals of the US dollar (the underlying asset the Treasury bond is a derivative of) are deteriorating: the country is carrying more debt while taxes are declining and government spending is increasing, thus signaling even more debt and greater difficulty in repaying it.
3. Consistent with Austrian business cycle theory, bubbles are the result of central bank distortions in the money supply. Peter Schiff recently wrote an excellent article elaborating on this topic as it relates to the Treasury bond market.
As we've seen, bubbles don't last forever -- and they always search for needles. So the question: how will the Treasury bond bubble find its pin, and what happens when it does?
1. According to Ka-Poom Theory (which we previously discussed on TradingGoddess), a black swan event -- an outlier with a disproportional impact -- will be the trigger to causing the Treasury bubble to quickly pop. In recent US history, previous examples of black swan events that have lead to sharp bubble deflations have been (1) 9/11 popping the dot com bubble and (2) the Bear Stearns collapse bringing about the subprime crisis and the collapse of the mortgage bubble.
2. As Treasury bonds are owned primarily by foreign countries, the popping of the bubble will be external to the US economy. In other words, deflating of Treasuries requires debt holders in foreign nations, particularly China and Japan, to sell off.
3. Just as global deleveraging to pay off dollar denominated debts resulted in a sale of foreign currencies to purchase the US dollar, a mass exodus of Treasuries led by foreign holders will result in Treasury bonds being sold and exchanged for foreign currencies ( Iceland and Argentina serve as historical examples of this concept, as they were environments in which bubbles government debt were owned pre-dominantly by foreigners). And given that China and Japan are primary Treasury bond holders, an appreciation in those currencies as that money is brought home seems natural.
So when will it happen?
Impossible to predict, in my opinion. As a market bear by nature, I think playing this from the short side by looking for when momentum in the Treasury bond market turns south represents an opportunity. Currently, the chart for TLT, a 20+ year Treasury bond ETF, looks a bit bullish. and is rallying after bouncing off support in the 111.60 area. Should the market re-test this level with bearish momentum, it may be an opportunity to ride a bear trend as the Treasury bond bubble begins to deflate.
Disclosure: short USDJPY.
Simit Patel
InformedTrades.com
Posted by Simit Patel at 1/15/2009 12:03:00 PM
There's a bubble in US Treasury bonds. Here's the explanation:
1. The bailout money is not being lent to consumers, but rather is being used by banks to buy Treasury bonds.
2. We've been seeing Treasury bond prices rise strongly (i.e. falling yield rates), which reflects increased demand for Treasuries. At the same time, though, the fundamentals of the US dollar (the underlying asset the Treasury bond is a derivative of) are deteriorating: the country is carrying more debt while taxes are declining and government spending is increasing, thus signaling even more debt and greater difficulty in repaying it.
3. Consistent with Austrian business cycle theory, bubbles are the result of central bank distortions in the money supply. Peter Schiff recently wrote an excellent article elaborating on this topic as it relates to the Treasury bond market.
As we've seen, bubbles don't last forever -- and they always search for needles. So the question: how will the Treasury bond bubble find its pin, and what happens when it does?
1. According to Ka-Poom Theory (which we previously discussed on TradingGoddess), a black swan event -- an outlier with a disproportional impact -- will be the trigger to causing the Treasury bubble to quickly pop. In recent US history, previous examples of black swan events that have lead to sharp bubble deflations have been (1) 9/11 popping the dot com bubble and (2) the Bear Stearns collapse bringing about the subprime crisis and the collapse of the mortgage bubble.
2. As Treasury bonds are owned primarily by foreign countries, the popping of the bubble will be external to the US economy. In other words, deflating of Treasuries requires debt holders in foreign nations, particularly China and Japan, to sell off.
3. Just as global deleveraging to pay off dollar denominated debts resulted in a sale of foreign currencies to purchase the US dollar, a mass exodus of Treasuries led by foreign holders will result in Treasury bonds being sold and exchanged for foreign currencies ( Iceland and Argentina serve as historical examples of this concept, as they were environments in which bubbles government debt were owned pre-dominantly by foreigners). And given that China and Japan are primary Treasury bond holders, an appreciation in those currencies as that money is brought home seems natural.
So when will it happen?
Impossible to predict, in my opinion. As a market bear by nature, I think playing this from the short side by looking for when momentum in the Treasury bond market turns south represents an opportunity. Currently, the chart for TLT, a 20+ year Treasury bond ETF, looks a bit bullish. and is rallying after bouncing off support in the 111.60 area. Should the market re-test this level with bearish momentum, it may be an opportunity to ride a bear trend as the Treasury bond bubble begins to deflate.
Disclosure: short USDJPY.
Simit Patel
InformedTrades.com
Posted by Simit Patel at 1/15/2009 12:03:00 PM
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