2/4/09
Humm...BAC
Interesting BAC is on it's ass and MF GS C ect are up over 5% today
I wonder if there might be a short attack on BAC and a take under (aka WM WA style) tonight...
BTW the SPX day chart turned neutral Tuesday...if we close red today I think it goes back to a sell...watching. Just feels like we are due for a major move but which way?
2/3/09
SPX Ranges for Wednesday
DOW TRANS Bottom in
I think Dow Trans has put in a decent bottom up 4% today well off the lows Monday
DOW +123
SPX 60 Min chart
Trans are doing pretty good today + near 4% XLF weak on BAC and AIG. Homebuilders up over 7% on resales report
Approaching that 840 level and oversold
Trans are doing pretty good today + near 4% XLF weak on BAC and AIG. Homebuilders up over 7% on resales report
Approaching that 840 level and oversold
SPX snooze Fest
Couple of inside trades worked today so far
Check out Dow Trans up over 2% I like the RSI on this....could be a good bottom play on IYT
2/2/09
Retail Roll - from Bespoke
Retail Group Breaks Support
Macy's has brought the retail group down once again today on news that it slashed its dividend and will cut 7,000 jobs. Along with the Financial sector, retailers have been one of the hardest hit groups during the current recession. And unfortunately, the retail group broke through key support today that has previously held a number of times over the past couple of months. This breakdown is not a good sign for the group or the entire market.
For those interested, below we highlight the companies that make up the S&P 500 retail group. For each stock, we provide its year-to-date performance along with its indicated dividend yield (since Macy's cut its dividend today). As shown, Office Depot (ODP) is off the most this year with a decline of 37.58%, followed by Sherwin-Williams (SHW), Limited Brands (LTD), and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF). Six stocks in the group are up this year, and two of them are online retailers (EXPE and AMZN). As consumers continue to bunker down, they're doing more and more of their miniscule purchasing online, which is a big negative for the brick and mortar companies that already have high overhead.
February 02, 2009 at 03:29 PM in Market Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
SPX Ranges for Tuesday
Critical levels here on the SPX...Nice sector rotation into XLK and Tech's today
Dow Trans and Oil weak as well. XLF did a 3% reversal off the lows today.
Big Picture
The SPX is bouncing today on a gap down to the trend line... I am worried about a breakdown if the MACD remains under the signal. The RSI would support the bottom theory if it remains above the last low... Developing
Bounce Off 812 low 820 now
52 Week Lows on Trans and Oil down, with Naz positive. GE weak and BAC as well
1/30/09
The Best and Worst of January
It definitely wasn't a pretty month, with the S&P 500 declining 8.6%. Below we provide the performance of the ten S&P 500 sectors along with the best and worst performing individual stocks in the index in January. As shown, Financials were a large part of the overall declines, as the sector has fallen 26.5% year to date. Utilities and Health Care were the best performing sectors, declining by just 0.8% and 1.3% respectively. (Thanks to Bespoke!)
Looking real Ugly for the close and Monday
Bettcha $1 that we see new lows on SPX next week 741 or lower
Congressional hyperventilating
Now this blogger is as irate about the payment of largely unwarranted bonuses as anyone. In any other industry, firms losing money on a survival-threatening scale would have eliminated them or targeted them far more selectively, well, save for the auto industry, which serves to prove the point.
However, the Congressional hyperventilating is a shameless diversionary tactic. Let us turn to philosopher Rodney Dangerfield:
If you steal $1000 from a convenience store, you go to jail for ten years. If you steal $100 million, you get called before Congress and called bad names for ten minutes.
Per naked capitalism
However, the Congressional hyperventilating is a shameless diversionary tactic. Let us turn to philosopher Rodney Dangerfield:
If you steal $1000 from a convenience store, you go to jail for ten years. If you steal $100 million, you get called before Congress and called bad names for ten minutes.
Per naked capitalism
1/29/09
DOW Trans Testing Lows
IYT is the ETF...Filled Wednesdays gap today.....on watch for a short or long play
If it's a gap fill day...everything has filled except the XLF
XLK gap down reversal here and the $SML is down over 4% today
RIMM set up
Looks like RIMM may have begun it's top pattern. it would be perfect to see a new high and a lower RSI ...
No follow though on XLF...or Profit taking?
News giving some confusion on if Gov't will do the bad bank thing or inject capital to banks via common stock.
Typical ballon floating
Typical ballon floating
1/28/09
Almost forgot to remind on USO
Hit the lower trend line and bounced at 28.69. MACD bounce is possible for another bounce but penetration of price lower and macd turn down is worth watching. Post chart in the AM. UCO OR SCO IS THE 2X play
Postmaster General: Mail days may need to be cut
Losing 6 Billion this year!...I can't even get my mail correctly delivered... holy crap
WASHINGTON (AP) - Massive deficits could force the post office to cut out one day of mail delivery, the postmaster general told Congress on Wednesday, in asking lawmakers to lift the requirement that the agency deliver mail six days a week.
If the change happens, that doesn't necessarily mean an end to Saturday mail delivery. Previous post office studies have looked at the possibility of skipping some other day when mail flow is light, such as Tuesday.
Faced with dwindling mail volume and rising costs, the post office was $2.8 billion in the red last year. "If current trends continue, we could experience a net loss of $6 billion or more this fiscal year," Potter said in testimony for a Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs subcommittee.
Total mail volume was 202 billion items last year, over 9 billion less than the year before, the largest single volume drop in history.
And, despite annual rate increases, Potter said 2009 could be the first year since 1946 that the actual amount of money collected by the post office declines.
"It is possible that the cost of six-day delivery may simply prove to be unaffordable," Potter said. "I reluctantly request that Congress remove the annual appropriation bill rider, first added in 1983, that requires the Postal Service to deliver mail six days each week."
"The ability to suspend delivery on the lightest delivery days, for example, could save dollars in both our delivery and our processing and distribution networks. I do not make this request lightly, but I am forced to consider every option given the severity of our challenge," Potter said.
That doesn't mean it would happen right away, he noted, adding that the agency is working to cut costs and any final decision on changing delivery would have to be made by the postal governing board.
If it did become necessary to go to five-day delivery, Potter said, "we would do this by suspending delivery on the lightest volume days."
The Postal Service raised the issue of cutting back on days of service last fall in a study it issued. At that time the agency said the six-day rule should be eliminated, giving the post office, "the flexibility to meet future needs for delivery frequency.
A study done by George Mason University last year for the independent Postal Regulatory Commission estimated that going from six-day to five-day delivery would save the post office more than $1.9 billion annually, while a Postal Service study estimated the saving at $3.5 billion.
The next postal rate increase is scheduled for May, with the amount to be announced next month. Under current rules that would be limited to the amount of the increase in last year's consumer price index, 3.8 percent. That would round to a 2-cent increase in the current 42-cent first class rate.
The agency could request a larger increase because of the special circumstances, but Potter believes that would be counterproductive by causing mail volume to fall even more.
Dan G. Blair, chairman of the Postal Regulatory Commission, noted in his testimony that cutting service could also carry the risk of loss of mail volume. He suggested Congress review both delivery and restrictions it imposed on the closing of small and rural post offices.
The post office's problem is twofold, Potter explained.
"A revolution in the way people communicate has structurally changed the way America uses the mail," with a shift from first-class letters to the Internet for personal communications, billings, payments, statements and business correspondence.
To some extent that was made up for my growth in standard mail—largely advertising—but the economic meltdown has resulted in a drop there also.
Potter also asked that Congress ease the requirement that it make advance payments into a fund to cover future health benefits for retirees. Last year the post office was required to put $5.6 billion into the fund.
"We are in uncharted waters," Potter said. "But we do know that mail volume and revenue—and with them the health of the mail system—are dependent on the length and depth of the current economic recession."
He proposed easing the retirement pre-funding for eight years, while promising that the agency will cover the premiums for retirement health insurance.
At the same hearing the General Accounting Office agreed that the post office is facing an urgent need for help to preserve its financial strength. But the GAO suggested easing the pre-funding requirement for only two years, with Congress to determine the need for more relief later.
Potter noted that the agency has cut costs by $1 billion per year since 2002, reduced its work force by 120,000, halted construction of new facilities except in emergencies, frozen executive salaries and is in the process of reducing its headquarters work force by 15 percent.
___
On the Net:
U.S. Postal Service: http://www.usps.com
WASHINGTON (AP) - Massive deficits could force the post office to cut out one day of mail delivery, the postmaster general told Congress on Wednesday, in asking lawmakers to lift the requirement that the agency deliver mail six days a week.
If the change happens, that doesn't necessarily mean an end to Saturday mail delivery. Previous post office studies have looked at the possibility of skipping some other day when mail flow is light, such as Tuesday.
Faced with dwindling mail volume and rising costs, the post office was $2.8 billion in the red last year. "If current trends continue, we could experience a net loss of $6 billion or more this fiscal year," Potter said in testimony for a Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs subcommittee.
Total mail volume was 202 billion items last year, over 9 billion less than the year before, the largest single volume drop in history.
And, despite annual rate increases, Potter said 2009 could be the first year since 1946 that the actual amount of money collected by the post office declines.
"It is possible that the cost of six-day delivery may simply prove to be unaffordable," Potter said. "I reluctantly request that Congress remove the annual appropriation bill rider, first added in 1983, that requires the Postal Service to deliver mail six days each week."
"The ability to suspend delivery on the lightest delivery days, for example, could save dollars in both our delivery and our processing and distribution networks. I do not make this request lightly, but I am forced to consider every option given the severity of our challenge," Potter said.
That doesn't mean it would happen right away, he noted, adding that the agency is working to cut costs and any final decision on changing delivery would have to be made by the postal governing board.
If it did become necessary to go to five-day delivery, Potter said, "we would do this by suspending delivery on the lightest volume days."
The Postal Service raised the issue of cutting back on days of service last fall in a study it issued. At that time the agency said the six-day rule should be eliminated, giving the post office, "the flexibility to meet future needs for delivery frequency.
A study done by George Mason University last year for the independent Postal Regulatory Commission estimated that going from six-day to five-day delivery would save the post office more than $1.9 billion annually, while a Postal Service study estimated the saving at $3.5 billion.
The next postal rate increase is scheduled for May, with the amount to be announced next month. Under current rules that would be limited to the amount of the increase in last year's consumer price index, 3.8 percent. That would round to a 2-cent increase in the current 42-cent first class rate.
The agency could request a larger increase because of the special circumstances, but Potter believes that would be counterproductive by causing mail volume to fall even more.
Dan G. Blair, chairman of the Postal Regulatory Commission, noted in his testimony that cutting service could also carry the risk of loss of mail volume. He suggested Congress review both delivery and restrictions it imposed on the closing of small and rural post offices.
The post office's problem is twofold, Potter explained.
"A revolution in the way people communicate has structurally changed the way America uses the mail," with a shift from first-class letters to the Internet for personal communications, billings, payments, statements and business correspondence.
To some extent that was made up for my growth in standard mail—largely advertising—but the economic meltdown has resulted in a drop there also.
Potter also asked that Congress ease the requirement that it make advance payments into a fund to cover future health benefits for retirees. Last year the post office was required to put $5.6 billion into the fund.
"We are in uncharted waters," Potter said. "But we do know that mail volume and revenue—and with them the health of the mail system—are dependent on the length and depth of the current economic recession."
He proposed easing the retirement pre-funding for eight years, while promising that the agency will cover the premiums for retirement health insurance.
At the same hearing the General Accounting Office agreed that the post office is facing an urgent need for help to preserve its financial strength. But the GAO suggested easing the pre-funding requirement for only two years, with Congress to determine the need for more relief later.
Potter noted that the agency has cut costs by $1 billion per year since 2002, reduced its work force by 120,000, halted construction of new facilities except in emergencies, frozen executive salaries and is in the process of reducing its headquarters work force by 15 percent.
___
On the Net:
U.S. Postal Service: http://www.usps.com
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