20% Sharp Shooters!

2/26/09

Consumer confidence inched – barely – to its best of the year

2009 High
Nearly Half Say Their Personal Finances are in Good Shape
Analysis by Patrick Moynihan
Feb. 24, 2009

Consumer confidence inched – barely – to its best of the year this week, boosted by improved ratings of personal finances. But it's by no means out of troubled territory.

The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index stands at -48 on its scale of +100 to -100, up 5 points in two weeks, moving slowly off the mat since hitting its record low, -54, Jan. 25. Although still mired near its worst, the CCI's gain is its biggest since September, lifting it to its best in two months.

The boost is fueled primarily by slightly better views of personal finances: Forty-nine percent say theirs are in good shape, up 5 points in two weeks – matching their largest two-week increase since December 2007. Nonetheless, majorities have rated their own finances negatively for 31 weeks straight, surpassed only by a 40-week run in 1992-93.

XLF Tired up almost 30% in 3 days

SPX trend line needs to hold here 767 now

SPX at 11:44

XLE and XLF leaders...getting sell sig's on SPX short term

USO at Trend line Up 10% from 23, 25.70 now

SPX up open but stalled at 772

USO +4% XLF +4% extended, both where previous res on RSI has seen a reversal.

2/25/09

SPX Ranges for Thursday

15 Min

Daily

Overbought at the end of the day and they sold it off...SPX 764 Down 8 pts or 1%

A wild freaking day disappointing some bottom callers... Looking at the RSI, unless we go up huge for the rest of the week, I think it wants to put in a lower low. I am waiting for a buy and hold with a bottom position in TNA just like everyone else. Thought we had it when the RSI's on XLF and SPX turned up but NO it finished down on the day. Still Financial have had a great run even today look at C BAC JPM MF ect, all up over 10% earlier today. If your trading FAS or FAZ is where it's at. If you have not figured out my charts yet, just try to go long on low STO and low RSI's and or non confirming PPS RSI's and opposite for sell's or short side trades.

USO held up closing at plus 6% While the Transports, off the lows closed at new 52 week lows down 4% today.

XLF with 30 min to go

Above the range...SPX up 5 points

USO up 7% UCO up 12%

XLF has a gap from 8.80 to 8.40 to fill

XLF 1:55, SPX down 3

XLF Update for FAS and FAZ traders

$SML small caps are down 4% today

Not new 52 week lows....watch for the RSI to turn and you got yourself a TNA trade

USO up 5%...Daily still looking good

DOW Transports hit new 52 week lows Down 5%

DAILY

20 YEAR WEEKLY

There's a trade here somewhere IYT is the Long ETF

SPX reverses

SPX 10:10 critical support now

2/24/09

SPX Ranges for Wednesday - Dream Day for FAS up 27%

A rally is a rally, IDK what kind yet

ALL ETF RSI turned up today....a sign I look for BUT I like to see long tails on reversal bottoms...I don't see many. This is more of a bullish engulfing that didn't quite get up enough to be called that technically. Hey, it's still a rally and possible double bottom on the SPX (Triple if you go back to 2003)

SPX at upper channel 771

Some Updates

Dow Trans up 4%, USO up 4.5%, XLF up 9.2%,

UCO up 8%, FAS up 23% (should be up ~30%) , ERX up 12%

GM up 21% BAC up 16% C up 9% HD up 9% AXP off 52 week low here up 9%

Bernanke Calls "recession" over this Year... (RIGHT!?!)

In his semiannual report to the Senate Banking Committee, Bernanke predicted the economy is likely to keep contracting in the first six months of 2009. But he also said "there is a reasonable prospect" the recession will end this year. He warned that a recovery will require getting credit and financial markets to operate normally.

While Bernanke's assessment of the economy helped ease some pressure on the market, it also came after days of heavy selling that left the Dow Jones industrial average and the Standard & Poor's 500 index near 12-year lows, so a bounce in stocks wasn't a surprise. Stocks made cheaper by the selloff attracted bargain-hunting traders. Also, some, better-than-expected quarterly numbers from Home Depot Inc. helped cool some anxiety about the economy.

SPX 2:30 nice run here to 769 XLF up 9%

getting too hot here...if we can close up here without a huge reversal today, I think we've got a couple of nice bullish days ahead of us

XLF up 4% SPX head banging 755

SPX 755 may be too hard to bust through today

Signs of the Market rolling over now

XLF and SPX 15 min charts above

Interesting triangle on the XLF here

SPX above 755 looks like a trigger

for a day trade

GE New lows at 8.62 this morning -2.5%

Other 52 week lows in the DOW AXP also 11.70 -4%, also CAT AA PG DD MSFT UTX Dis and BA

You get the picture....

SPX 15 min at downtrend break point

Sector ETF Rsi's pointing up today down in the 30 areas

a good sign, but they have to close pointing up to get long...watching

From Kirk Report: (see Housing #'s?? gaaawd!)

The 10:AM hour is going to be a busy one as reports on consumer confidence and Richmond Fed's Manufacturing Index is released. Bernanke will begin speaking to the Senate Banking Committee at that time as well. Beyond today session, tonight's speech by Obama, bank stress tests tomorrow and the future plans of Citigroup and Uncle Sam's investment in it will be front and center.

Just so you know, Elliot Wave's Richard Prechter is out this morning recommending that everyone cover their shorts now. Prechter's said that the rebound in stocks could be "sharp and scary for anyone who is short." We'll see if his comments gather much attention out there today amid the gloom and doom.

With the S&P below its November low (although the intraday low still stands), on any weakness traders will be closely watching to see if we cross November lows in the Russell 2000 (385) and in the Nasdaq (1316). Again, every statistical study I've looked at since last night's close suggests that a counter-trend reversal is setting up here. Now all we need is the price action to confirm those studies.

Futures up less than 1%

JPM cuts Div from .38 per quarter to .02....did not weigh on AH last night but we'll see what happens today.

USO looks to be setting up an island bottom on an exhaustion gap down last week...watching