4/16/09

SPX 868 near Melt up point

SPX near Rally high 864

SPX HOD 858 again

SPX headfakes coming...rsi helps you not to bite


XLF Update MACD watch for direction trend lines close here

XLF 60 Min

865 would be a new rally high...needs to get over 855

parabolic curves we normally would bet the other way?


ESTIMATORS Trigger picks on the left side all good set ups ISLE and RPT still look great!

XLK XLY leading this AM up 1.5%

XLF - FAS FAZ traders, need to watch up here for signs of a reversal - top of the wedge

SPX 856 gap open getting over bought on this 15 min chart

SPX Melt up Rationale -

RSI is coiled, OBV downtrend breakout, Air gap from Q4 crash, High sustained STO, Positive trending MACD, Weekly RSI is only arounf 50 (more room), Stronger XLF and XLE and XLK. I still think we get back down close to or test 667 in a few weeks or months (2-3). So watch for reversals below the 21 EMA for a turn.

4/15/09

Thoughts on a potential melt up in the AM

SPX 852 close nice EOD run.. XLF reverses 10% intra day FAS 30% run



SPX trend break...it's trying again

USO Update off .6% today but getting close to a major move

Trend looks down but lets see when a trend line is hit

SPX run over 841 to 847 fails 840 now


XLF testing top of a channel

XLF trying to get out of this V top tested top of Gap...SPX stuck under resistance 843


Looking at equal dollar 3 x pair trades as a position trade

For example when the XLF was at it's low around $6, the FAS was $3 and the FAZ was $115.

a 5K investment in each, a 10k total would have turned into about 20k last week when the XLF hit $11

Of course extreme price variances must exist, FAS is $7.60 and FAZ is $11.36 now, a bet the XLF goes above $15 or below $5 would pay off 30 to 50% by my calculations.

Another 3 x pricing variance might be SCO and UCO on the USO. Those are 2 x, but DXO and DTO might be another to pair now with DTO at $167 and DXO at 2.97

ERX ERY and BGU and BGZ, as well as TYH and TYP for the tech play.

Just a thought

XLF Opens down 2.5%

SPX soft open XLF under pressure - Watching for a tradable bounce

4/11/09

$SML or the S&P 600 (3X TNA TZA) needs 10% more to hit a 50% gain

From 181 lows. Mind blowing. 248 now. 275 would be up 50%.

4/9/09

Please note the SPX daily chart below. The OBV is at the downtrend and we will watch


To see if we can run up like the runs down on the last 2 trend breaks to the downside. Interesting!

Not leaving out the posibility we turn down to stay under the trend.

Estimator home run from his box on the left RPT up 18% today 8.90

Leveraged-etf-performance-during-the-rally

leveraged-etf-performance-during-the-rally


SPX 856 Close +3.8% - Ranges for Monday (closed Friday) Happy Easter!

SPX Rally is now Up 28% from 667

TNA FAS UCO (BAC WFC C ect...they can return tarp $ now that FASB allows them to now book profits...sure!) PS, Umemploy claims were up today...

XLF on a tear at the close up 15% FAS 40%