4/23/09
4/22/09
SPX headfake and breaks the uptrend to close 843 - Ranges for Thursday SPX XLF
Note the SPX had a MACD Cross under today (red flag)
Long Shot Trade Idea on FAZ if there is a melt up
If the XLF goes up 33%, say today from 10.60 to 14.10, then FAZ goes from 9.00 to zero in theory. If that is just an intra day spike and we sell off during the day to say 12. FAX would, in theory go from zero to 4.50 IF the XLF backs off to up 17% or 12.40. So an order in at 0.04 on FAZ if filled would go to 4.50, a One Hundred (Correction) bagger... Why not, I am putting in a GTC.
Anyone see a flaw here other than it has to be an intraday event because after the close the point of calculation begins with the new FAZ close. ie if the XLF closes at say up 33% at 14.10 then FAZ closes at say 4 or 5 cents. the next day would only get you 50% or 2 -3 cents if the same move happens the next day (14.10 to 12.40). It would all have to happen intraday to work.
Anyone see a flaw here other than it has to be an intraday event because after the close the point of calculation begins with the new FAZ close. ie if the XLF closes at say up 33% at 14.10 then FAZ closes at say 4 or 5 cents. the next day would only get you 50% or 2 -3 cents if the same move happens the next day (14.10 to 12.40). It would all have to happen intraday to work.
This will all end in a huge spike as I've said... Zero Hedge below:
SPY Have Become Hard To Borrow
Posted by Tyler Durden at 9:33 AM
Developing story: Traders confirm several locations indicating SPDRs are no longer automatic borrow and have made their way to the Hard To Borrow list: pre-borrow call is needed versus automatic short prior, as not enough underlying inventory.
Have fun hedging the market when you can not short. Whole market squeeze in progress.
10:23 am update:
Posted by Tyler Durden at 9:33 AM
Developing story: Traders confirm several locations indicating SPDRs are no longer automatic borrow and have made their way to the Hard To Borrow list: pre-borrow call is needed versus automatic short prior, as not enough underlying inventory.
Have fun hedging the market when you can not short. Whole market squeeze in progress.
10:23 am update:
Good Morning Oil and XLF weak this morning...XLF -3% SPY -1.0%
From Kirk Report: Earnings Disappointment
Good morning. Premarket futures have a negative bias as earnings reports from Morgan Stanley and other financials don't meet expectations. According to Bloomberg, earnings per share have decreased 23% on average so far this earnings season.
Other headlines drawing interest include news that regulators will begin briefing banks Friday about how they fared in the stress tests, lobbying over TARP continues to pick up speed, the CFO of Freddie Mac was found dead from an apparent suicide this morning, rising mortgage applications, and Goldman Sachs has added Ford to its conviction buy list.
Premarket gainers: WSII, PFCB, SNDK, RCRC, TUP, AAI, TIN, LEA, CPTS, FAZ, ASYT, CNXT, MEDX, GM, F, MOLX, GERN, MEDX, MICC, GILD, KNDL, AAI, IR, SOLR, JRJC, TROW, CHRW, IMAX, DNDN, CELG, MGM, & LVS.
Premarket losers: PPDI, PDLI, FITB, SNV, ETH, FRE, RF, MS, JAH, HBAN, ILMN, CENX, PPDI, ICLR, COF, PXP, AMD, JAH, BHP, CBY, BBL, & NSC.
At 10:AM we have the Ofheo House Price Index and 30 minutes later the weekly EIA Petroleum Status report. We also have some key earnings reports from companies like Apple (AAPL) and Qualcomm (QCOM) after the close.
With yesterday's timely reversal, it will be quite interesting to see what the market identifies as positive catalysts out there today. Again, more choppy action today and for the remainder of the week wouldn't necessary be a bad thing. Go make it a great day!
Posted by Kirk at 9:01 AM in Premarket | Bookmark | Feeds | Link | Email This
Good morning. Premarket futures have a negative bias as earnings reports from Morgan Stanley and other financials don't meet expectations. According to Bloomberg, earnings per share have decreased 23% on average so far this earnings season.
Other headlines drawing interest include news that regulators will begin briefing banks Friday about how they fared in the stress tests, lobbying over TARP continues to pick up speed, the CFO of Freddie Mac was found dead from an apparent suicide this morning, rising mortgage applications, and Goldman Sachs has added Ford to its conviction buy list.
Premarket gainers: WSII, PFCB, SNDK, RCRC, TUP, AAI, TIN, LEA, CPTS, FAZ, ASYT, CNXT, MEDX, GM, F, MOLX, GERN, MEDX, MICC, GILD, KNDL, AAI, IR, SOLR, JRJC, TROW, CHRW, IMAX, DNDN, CELG, MGM, & LVS.
Premarket losers: PPDI, PDLI, FITB, SNV, ETH, FRE, RF, MS, JAH, HBAN, ILMN, CENX, PPDI, ICLR, COF, PXP, AMD, JAH, BHP, CBY, BBL, & NSC.
At 10:AM we have the Ofheo House Price Index and 30 minutes later the weekly EIA Petroleum Status report. We also have some key earnings reports from companies like Apple (AAPL) and Qualcomm (QCOM) after the close.
With yesterday's timely reversal, it will be quite interesting to see what the market identifies as positive catalysts out there today. Again, more choppy action today and for the remainder of the week wouldn't necessary be a bad thing. Go make it a great day!
Posted by Kirk at 9:01 AM in Premarket | Bookmark | Feeds | Link | Email This
4/21/09
4/20/09
Index notes
As bad as the drop was today most EMAs are still moving up and remain below closing prices. I am playing this as a pullback to test 8 21 EMA as another chance, a late chance to go long for maybe a last leg up. I can't imagine this rally ends without a big spike to draw in the late comers. Watching RSI to make sure it stays above and turns up near 50 for confirmation. Getting short if it does go below 50.
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Index Fell in March (Update1)
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Index Fell in March (Update1)
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By Bob Willis
April 20 (Bloomberg) -- The index of U.S. leading economic indicators in March fell more than forecast, indicating any recovery from what may be the longest recession in the postwar era is still many months away.
The Conference Board’s gauge fell 0.3 percent after a 0.2 percent drop in February that was smaller than previously estimated, the New York-based research group said today. The index points to the direction of the economy over the next three to six months.
Rising unemployment and tight credit mean recent gains in consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy, will probably not be sustained, extending the contraction well into the second half of the year. The report cautions that Federal Reserve and Obama administration measures to boost the financial system may not immediately pay off.
“It isn’t indicating any kind of quick uptick in growth,” said Dean Maki, co-head of U.S. economic research at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. “We are looking for a recovery that is significantly less robust than what is typically seen after deep recessions.”
The index was forecast to decline 0.2 percent, according to the median of 51 economists in a Bloomberg News survey, after an originally reported decrease of 0.4 percent the prior month. Estimates ranged from a drop of 0.7 percent to a 0.1 percent gain.
Share | Email | Print | A A A
By Bob Willis
April 20 (Bloomberg) -- The index of U.S. leading economic indicators in March fell more than forecast, indicating any recovery from what may be the longest recession in the postwar era is still many months away.
The Conference Board’s gauge fell 0.3 percent after a 0.2 percent drop in February that was smaller than previously estimated, the New York-based research group said today. The index points to the direction of the economy over the next three to six months.
Rising unemployment and tight credit mean recent gains in consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy, will probably not be sustained, extending the contraction well into the second half of the year. The report cautions that Federal Reserve and Obama administration measures to boost the financial system may not immediately pay off.
“It isn’t indicating any kind of quick uptick in growth,” said Dean Maki, co-head of U.S. economic research at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. “We are looking for a recovery that is significantly less robust than what is typically seen after deep recessions.”
The index was forecast to decline 0.2 percent, according to the median of 51 economists in a Bloomberg News survey, after an originally reported decrease of 0.4 percent the prior month. Estimates ranged from a drop of 0.7 percent to a 0.1 percent gain.
A Big Week For Earnings (via Kirk Report)
A Big Week For Earnings
Good morning. Premarket futures indicate significant sell interest at the open following weakness in overseas markets.
In addition to earnings reports from Bank Of America (BAC), Eli Lilly (LLY), & Eaton (ETN) and others, Oracle (ORCL) will pay $9.50 per share to acquire Sun Microsystems (JAVA) and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) agrees to buy Stiefel Laboratories for up to $3.6 billion.
After shutting down more banks over the weekend, in a significant shift, the White House and Treasury officials now say they can stretch what is left of the $700 billion financial bailout fund further simply by converting the government's existing loans to the nation’s 19 biggest banks into common stock.
Over the weekend, comments from both Volcker and Geithner drew attention especially since the government decided to provide AIG with another (WTF!!!)$30 billion dollars. Finally, bankruptcy concerns surrounding General Motors continues to linger.
Premarket gainers: JAVA, PBG, PAS, RFMD, QTM, WRES, SKS, APWR, ALTH, PALM,DNDN, NTAP, HMY, LLY, FNET, LVS, PBGT, LZ, SIRI, & HMY.
Premarket losers: DSCO, MMR, KWK, LAMR, CNO, BBEP, AAUK, ERIC, EGLE, LOGI, ASML, MT, NVDA, GDP, DB, TI, FCEL, ORCL, DRYS, GMX, ING, AXA, BCS, RTP, DB, PUK, HBC, AAUK, BBL, & CSE.
There isn't much economic data due out today - only the leading economic indicators for March at 10:AM. This will be a big week for earnings reports. This evening both International Business Machines (IBM) & Texas Instruments (TXN) will report after the closing bell.
Much like last week, the sentiment sell indicators and overbought conditions we've been tracking remain fully intact but without any price action to confirm that the rally is going to roll over at these levels. As a first step, we simply need to violate and close below last Friday's lows around S&P 860 and after that last week's lows around S&P 835. On the upside, overhead resistance toward S&P 900 will remain difficult to chew through although this market continues to show strength unlike anything we've seen in some time.
Let's make it a great week!
Posted by Kirk at 9:02 AM in Premarket | Bookmark | Feeds | Link | Email This
Good morning. Premarket futures indicate significant sell interest at the open following weakness in overseas markets.
In addition to earnings reports from Bank Of America (BAC), Eli Lilly (LLY), & Eaton (ETN) and others, Oracle (ORCL) will pay $9.50 per share to acquire Sun Microsystems (JAVA) and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) agrees to buy Stiefel Laboratories for up to $3.6 billion.
After shutting down more banks over the weekend, in a significant shift, the White House and Treasury officials now say they can stretch what is left of the $700 billion financial bailout fund further simply by converting the government's existing loans to the nation’s 19 biggest banks into common stock.
Over the weekend, comments from both Volcker and Geithner drew attention especially since the government decided to provide AIG with another (WTF!!!)$30 billion dollars. Finally, bankruptcy concerns surrounding General Motors continues to linger.
Premarket gainers: JAVA, PBG, PAS, RFMD, QTM, WRES, SKS, APWR, ALTH, PALM,DNDN, NTAP, HMY, LLY, FNET, LVS, PBGT, LZ, SIRI, & HMY.
Premarket losers: DSCO, MMR, KWK, LAMR, CNO, BBEP, AAUK, ERIC, EGLE, LOGI, ASML, MT, NVDA, GDP, DB, TI, FCEL, ORCL, DRYS, GMX, ING, AXA, BCS, RTP, DB, PUK, HBC, AAUK, BBL, & CSE.
There isn't much economic data due out today - only the leading economic indicators for March at 10:AM. This will be a big week for earnings reports. This evening both International Business Machines (IBM) & Texas Instruments (TXN) will report after the closing bell.
Much like last week, the sentiment sell indicators and overbought conditions we've been tracking remain fully intact but without any price action to confirm that the rally is going to roll over at these levels. As a first step, we simply need to violate and close below last Friday's lows around S&P 860 and after that last week's lows around S&P 835. On the upside, overhead resistance toward S&P 900 will remain difficult to chew through although this market continues to show strength unlike anything we've seen in some time.
Let's make it a great week!
Posted by Kirk at 9:02 AM in Premarket | Bookmark | Feeds | Link | Email This
XLF (FAZ FAS) pre market -4% @10.66 at support
This isn't the way I'd like to see a XLF rally end...needs to spike much higher IMO...we'll see. BAC ER out this AM...usual smoke and mirrors 
4/17/09
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