2/20/09

DOW Trickery


Since the DOW stocks under $10 don't count in the Average since back in Oct...I just have to wonder if they recomputed the Avg with these under $10, what would the number be

AA GE BAC C GM AIG (back then) what would the DOW be at, 6,000 or lower?

Coming down into the group of little ones is INTC AXP PFE MO DIS and maybe MSFT.

IS the DOW 30 now the DOW 26 and will it become the DOW 20 soon?

The assholes need to count these stocks or replace them....

Mainly why I track the SPX. At least the chart works.

Can't trust anyone these days, but then again, I guess we never could.

SPX Ranges for Monday



Monday should let us see if the Rsi can turn up, otherwise no chart improvement I see.

That OBV breakdown on the Daily was / is ominous

XLE, One more thing to worry About during the weekend


XLE tests 40, but under breakdown levels...hummm -3% today here. One of the worst performers today

SPX 15 min to go testing that 765 here

Not Good 30 min to go DOW -133 SPX -14...oh well

One thing is for sure...the DOW needs to massively close up today to negate the aweful chart set up...7500 plus might do it

BAC 2.55 to 4.10..gulp



AND we Reload?...or was this a short cover rally

WOW DOW UNCH XLF up .5% XLK up 1.6%



Get USO up for XLE and we are off to the races

Looks like it needs a rest soon

XLF Daily...needs to have the RSI turned on the close


And I'd say we might have a bottom of some sort

Rip your face off Rally?!?


White House Comments On Banking System

SPX - If we can get over 765 we might get a decent rally

760 here

SPX 2% above 741 low

DOW nearing 7197 and break to 1997 levels

Obama should be ashamed of the FED and the rest...BAC C down 28% and 25%

12:30 SPX testing the lows again

$VIX at 12:30 (BTW a very strange Open on this 42?!!)

FAS 15 min

Top 10 top reasons the market is in trouble...


Top 10 top reasons the market is in trouble...
1. The Sunday paper costs more than NYT stock

2. The Citi ATM fee costs more than C stock

3. The paper that a mortgage is written on costs more than FRE stock

4. A subscription to Sirius Satellite radio would cost more than SIRI stock

5. A gallon of gas costs more than F stock

6. One ride costs more than SIX (Six Flags) stock

7. A bottle of soda costs more than JSDA (Jones Soda) stock

8. A 5 minute long distance phone call costs more than VG (Vonage) stock

9. A 5 stick pack of gum costs more than RAD (Rite-Aid) stock

10. The strawberries in a smoothie cost more than JMBA (Jamba Juice) stock

DOW 7200 MUST hold



DOW 7319 Low of Day

XLF new Lows down 6.2% XLK Unch SPX 764 Down 14

XLK Green +.5% - Very cool

FAS 15 min

SPX 761 low to 771 now

Pre Market XLF - 4.1% USO -3.3%





XLF XLE pressure market....SPX 20 point above 741, old low. THe SPX OBV trend break is on the chart above...click on to see full chart

2/19/09

Check your SPX daily chart's OBV

As mentioned a few days ago I was worried about a major breakdown like sept oct when that OBV trend broke

Look at OBV breaking the trendline today. Be careful all!!

An interday of SPX is a couple posts below but doesn't have the OBV close update

SPX Ranges For Friday (Options Expire)

SPX 30 Min


SPX 60 Min Chart

Market Down on Banks and up oil (+13%). XLF -4.9% USO +6%. VIX still under 50 at 47.

C and BAC -14%.

Triple Bottom area for the DOW (new low today) SPX still 37 points above Nov low

New Low for XLF

Look for Trigger News for the next few days

Bounce or Dive News

DOW Makes new Bear Low


20 Year Dow

IMPORTANT RSI NOT CONFIRMING AND VIX is DOWN today...huh, yes it's down

DOW Down 2,100 points


Since Obama got elected

DOW 20 points from NEW LOWS

C and BAC -12%



pretty sad charts

GE trades below $10 as well new 52 week and all time lows

SPX - If we can't close green today


the RSI is doomed to revisit 30 or below before a firm bottom is in place...look at the MA's spreading and dropping....like sept

UCO Up 12% on USO +6%

"Don't short a sleepy market".... hummmm



we are basing or ready to go off a cliff...

USO +5.6%

Could get a decent run here


XLF near breakout around 7.85 or so

XLF



If you want to bottom pick the FAS now would be the time...3% stop IMO

When will there be a giant run on the BANKS


there is no money for them to give back! At least if you are late to withdraw.

Click http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/02/fiat-world-mathematical-model.html

C and BAC on the ropes here


down 12% each

If the Fed doesn't wipe 'em out today this could be the trigger to take the whole market below the lows

XLF 7.72 has to hold or else

BAC 52 week low is 3.77...4.17 now


on credit card talk..isn't that OLD news?

Market rolling over

SPX 791 near a breakdown through up trend on the 15 min...needs to hold 787

spx xlf


C New 52 week Lows 2.76

Solid open


BAC weak again, but USO up 3% XLE +2% SPX +1% XLP +2%

UP


SPX at downtrend line

IF the SPX breaks down again these are off the table, BUT Bottom watches on:

USO, XLP, XLF, DOW, RIMM, GE, AA

Claims up, Inflation up


good times....get on board!

2/18/09

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ - SPX Ranges for Thursday

Reuters - People seeking to withdraw funds line up outside the Bank of Antigua in St John's February 18, 2009. ...

Stanford depositors swarm banks



By Jason Szep
Reuters - People seeking to withdraw funds line up outside the Bank of Antigua in St John's February 18, 2009. ...

Reuters - People seeking to withdraw funds line up outside the Bank of Antigua in St John's February 18, 2009. ...

ST. JOHN'S, Antigua (Reuters) - Hundreds of people lined up to withdraw money from banks in Antigua and Caracas affiliated with Texas billionaire Allen Stanford, a day after the tycoon was charged with an $8 billion fraud.

The whereabouts of the brash, 58-year-old financier were unknown. CNBC television said he tried to hire a private jet to fly from Houston, the site of his U.S. headquarters, to Antigua, but the jet lessor refused to accept his credit card.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has accused Stanford of operating a fraud centered on the sale of certificates of deposit from his Antiguan affiliate, Stanford International Bank Ltd (SIB).

The scheme has drawn comparisons with the alleged $50 billion fraud by Wall Street veteran Bernard Madoff.

In the twin-island state of Antigua and Barbuda, where Stanford is the biggest private employer, Prime Minister Baldwin Spencer said the charges against him could have "catastrophic" consequences but urged the public not to panic.

Two police officers stood watch at the Bank of Antigua as at least 600 people stood in a line stretching around a street corner, despite assurances from regional monetary authorities that the bank had sufficient reserves.

"I'm worried and I'd like to get my money out," said Andrea Lamar, 28, who joined the line with a friend on a street popular with tourists in the state capital, St. John's.

Bank of Antigua, with three branches in Antigua and Barbuda, is part of Stanford's sprawling global business interests but is separate from SIB, the offshore affiliate at the heart of fraud charges lodged by U.S. regulators.

The Eastern Caribbean Central Bank posted a statement at Bank of Antigua saying the bank had sufficient reserves.

"If individuals persist in rushing to the bank in a panic, they will precipitate the very situation that we are all trying to avoid," the statement said.

A similar scene played out in Caracas, where hundreds lined up to pull their money out of a Stanford bank.

"Stanford Bank Venezuela is a healthy bank without any type of problem," said Edgar Hernandez Behrens, who heads Venezuela's banking regulator.

A Venezuelan official estimated that people in that country have invested about $2.5 billion in Stanford.

In a civil complaint, the SEC said SIB sold $8 billion in certificates of deposit "by promising high return rates that exceed those available through true certificates of deposits offered by traditional banks."

Stanford Group claims to oversee $50 billion in assets.

The SEC said Stanford failed to respond to subpoenas seeking testimony and did not produce "a single document.

Last week, a Stanford Group spokesman denied initial reports that regulators were probing its business. Since Tuesday, company officials have been referring requests for comment to the SEC.

There were no signs of imminent criminal charges against Stanford, whose personal fortune was estimated by Forbes Magazine last year at $2.2 billion.

A federal judge on Tuesday appointed a receiver "to take possession and control of defendants' assets for the protection of defendants' victims."

'NOT DOING ANYTHING'

All was quiet on Wednesday outside Stanford's Houston office, a day after a raid by federal agents. A man who answered the phone at Stanford's Boston offices but declined to give his name said, "The office is open but we are not doing anything."

A Colombian affiliate of Stanford halted its activities on that country's stock exchange.

"We had to take a decision to protect investors and, naturally, to guarantee stability in the market," Alvaro Camaro, the bank's local director, told Reuters.

Stanford, who holds dual U.S.-Antiguan citizenship, has donated millions of dollars to U.S. politicians and secured endorsements from sports stars, including golfer Vijay Singh and soccer player Michael Owen.

Public figures on Wednesday scrambled to pull back from any relationship with Stanford, whose assets have been frozen.

British brokerage and investment house Blue Oak Capital said it had canceled a deal to distribute research from Stanford Washington Research Group.

"The whole thing was a complete waste of our time, I don't think we ever got any orders as a result of it," said Blue Oak Chief Operating Officer Jonathan Evans.

Former Swiss President Adolf Ogi said he would resign from the board of Stanford Financial Group. "I don't want to be associated with this sort of news," he said.

A leading figure in British cricket described the England and Wales Cricket Board's association with Stanford as a "fiasco." (ID:nLI150905) Stanford had become famous in the cricket world for a $20 million game in November between England and his own team of West Indian players.

Stanford lived for more than 20 years in the reef-girded island of Antigua, only 9 miles wide and 12 miles long with a population of just 70,000.

He owns the country's largest newspaper, heads a local commercial bank, and is the first American to receive a knighthood from its government. He has homes sprinkled across the region, from Antigua to St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands to Miami.

Some in the line at Bank of Antigua expressed hope that Stanford would evade arrest and keep his Antiguan investments.

"The charges come from America. They shouldn't apply here," said Sylvan Roberts, 43. "He's innocent until proven guilty."

(Reporting by Jason Szep in St. John's; additional reporting by Frank Jack Daniel, Ana Isabel Martinez and Saul Hudson in Caracas, Svea Herbst-Bayliss in Boston, Anna Driver in Houston, Helen Popper and Nelson Bocanegra in Bogota, Martin de Sa'Pinto and Emma Thomasson in Zurich and Mitch Phillips and Joel Dimmock in London; Writing by Scott Malone; editing by John Wallace)

Just a Thought... re: Bank pre or just Nationalization

We could see a major relief rally in non financial sector ETF's if and or when the Gov announces...just a thought

SPX Dip and Rally - Stalls at 795