5/2/09
5/1/09
4/30/09
SPX Ranges for Friday - SPX settles in under the downtrend at the close. UNG IYR USO XLF Focus
XLF had a weak close going through the wedge, IYR hung in there, USO at res, UNG possible bottom here
XLE lagging off 5% from Wednesday Highs down 2.2% here
XLY up 3% #SML up 1% XLK up 1% XLB up 3%
TLT reverses from under $97.40 on a little bounce...watch for this bust to lead the market for a while.. Fed lost control of 5 yr to 20 year T Bond interest rates
TLT reverses from under $97.40 on a little bounce...watch for this bust to lead the market for a while.. Fed lost control of 5 yr to 20 year T Bond interest rates
It just feels like a melt up is coming, however a few points
Short trades have been only good for 1.5 to 4hours tops.
Real bull market are steady, going up and down 2 - 3%, with not many wild moves...tracking above the 13 and 21 EMA.
up 35% in 2 months is crazy, but so was the 30% dip in the beginning of the year. We started the year at 940 so we may have more swings now that the market is almost calling it even.
the SPX is still below the 200 DMA and the weekly is below the 40 week EMA.
Lots can happen before and till we get to the 40 EMA weekly. 2002 shows we were given another chance to short indexes and then get long before the real bull market started.
The Fed is desperate to inflate and create another stupid bubble (worked on T bonds but it blew up, next this run on equity and maybe housing will improve again, but probably commodities).
Looks like buying the dips works or just buy and hold and cross your fingers.
Real bull market are steady, going up and down 2 - 3%, with not many wild moves...tracking above the 13 and 21 EMA.
up 35% in 2 months is crazy, but so was the 30% dip in the beginning of the year. We started the year at 940 so we may have more swings now that the market is almost calling it even.
the SPX is still below the 200 DMA and the weekly is below the 40 week EMA.
Lots can happen before and till we get to the 40 EMA weekly. 2002 shows we were given another chance to short indexes and then get long before the real bull market started.
The Fed is desperate to inflate and create another stupid bubble (worked on T bonds but it blew up, next this run on equity and maybe housing will improve again, but probably commodities).
Looks like buying the dips works or just buy and hold and cross your fingers.
4/29/09
Estimators Picks did well today from the box on the left
ISLE +11% ICTG +10% ASX +9% SWHC +9% AATI +8% SONS +6%
ETF Movers : TNA +12% FAS +11% UYG +8% URE +7% KOL +7% ERX +7% EWY +6%(Check the 10 40 cross coming on the weekly chart) TYH +6%
ETF Movers : TNA +12% FAS +11% UYG +8% URE +7% KOL +7% ERX +7% EWY +6%(Check the 10 40 cross coming on the weekly chart) TYH +6%
TLT below $99 $$ going out of bonds for the last 2 weeks
to stocks. High around 122...or a 22% leak in the bond bubble
11.33 is last XLF high...if it breaks above it it should run hard on my spike theory
Also the Melt up scenario is / could be underway.... watching SPX day RSI to confirm (must get to a new rsi high if SPX can get to close above 875.63. If the RSI fails at new high SPX PPS then red flags go up.
If we could just get more bad news, like the world is ending, or white bread is poison, then maybe we could hit all time highs.
Wall of worry is a yellow brick road.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
