4/16/09

Global Weekly Perspective.. A cautionary note that:

a lot of these indexes never breached 2003 lows like the U.S. The rebounds have RSI at 50 ish and that is in the reversal ball park.. ie, a non US market reversal could be trouble for our markets. Just a cautionary note







SPX backs off 870 high...10% day coming? (up?) - Ranges for Option Exp Friday

GOOG up 8% on ER AH good omen?!

200 point run for the SPX or Up 30% from 667 low

SPX 868 near Melt up point

SPX near Rally high 864

SPX HOD 858 again

SPX headfakes coming...rsi helps you not to bite


XLF Update MACD watch for direction trend lines close here

XLF 60 Min

865 would be a new rally high...needs to get over 855

parabolic curves we normally would bet the other way?


ESTIMATORS Trigger picks on the left side all good set ups ISLE and RPT still look great!

XLK XLY leading this AM up 1.5%

XLF - FAS FAZ traders, need to watch up here for signs of a reversal - top of the wedge

SPX 856 gap open getting over bought on this 15 min chart

SPX Melt up Rationale -

RSI is coiled, OBV downtrend breakout, Air gap from Q4 crash, High sustained STO, Positive trending MACD, Weekly RSI is only arounf 50 (more room), Stronger XLF and XLE and XLK. I still think we get back down close to or test 667 in a few weeks or months (2-3). So watch for reversals below the 21 EMA for a turn.

4/15/09

Thoughts on a potential melt up in the AM

SPX 852 close nice EOD run.. XLF reverses 10% intra day FAS 30% run



SPX trend break...it's trying again

USO Update off .6% today but getting close to a major move

Trend looks down but lets see when a trend line is hit

SPX run over 841 to 847 fails 840 now


XLF testing top of a channel

XLF trying to get out of this V top tested top of Gap...SPX stuck under resistance 843


Looking at equal dollar 3 x pair trades as a position trade

For example when the XLF was at it's low around $6, the FAS was $3 and the FAZ was $115.

a 5K investment in each, a 10k total would have turned into about 20k last week when the XLF hit $11

Of course extreme price variances must exist, FAS is $7.60 and FAZ is $11.36 now, a bet the XLF goes above $15 or below $5 would pay off 30 to 50% by my calculations.

Another 3 x pricing variance might be SCO and UCO on the USO. Those are 2 x, but DXO and DTO might be another to pair now with DTO at $167 and DXO at 2.97

ERX ERY and BGU and BGZ, as well as TYH and TYP for the tech play.

Just a thought

XLF Opens down 2.5%

SPX soft open XLF under pressure - Watching for a tradable bounce

4/14/09

841 close

XLF Daily
SPX 15 minSPX Daily. If the rsi can breakout we be rolling up but seems to be stuck up there

Weak into the close...breaking SPX 840 would not be good